Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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Linking impact and performance
November 5, 2019 | Equity
Often, the same elements that create environmental and social benefits are driving positive financial performance.
Capital Markets Outlook
Facing facts of a creeping contraction
October 15, 2019 | Capital Markets Outlook
As late-cycle signals grow louder, it's time for tactical caution across asset classes.
Fixed Income Outlook
Bond rally reflects economic uncertainty
October 23, 2019 | Fixed Income Outlook
Global growth has cooled in 2019 as trade conflicts have taken a toll on international manufacturing, investments, and financial markets.
Equity Outlook
A market of mixed messages
September 27, 2019 | Equity Outlook
We enter the final quarter of the year with a somewhat puzzling backdrop for equity investors.
Linking impact and performance
Often, the same elements that create environmental and social benefits are driving positive financial performance.
Fed relieves pressure on repo market
In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has provided billions of dollars of liquidity for participants in the market for repurchase agreements, or repos, to stabilize interest rates following a spike in mid-September.
Engaging with allies to advance sustainable investing
We collaborate with institutions to examine and understand the financial impacts of sustainability.
Will the improving housing market further divide the Fed?
The Fed remains divided on the trajectory of interest rates; a pick up in U.S. housing activity may increase this division.
Talking sustainability with CEOs
We have ongoing dialogue with the management teams of companies in which we invest, across a wide range of sustainability-related topics.
An inverted yield curve: Recession or stagnation?
The Treasury yield curve briefly inverted in August, rattling markets with the possibility of a recession.
Sustainability analysis enhances research
An intense focus on sustainability has the potential to deliver strong returns to investors while also benefiting communities and the environment.
July rate cut: “Insurance” policy or recession guard?
The Federal Reserve delivered on its widely expected quarter-percentage point interest-rate cut at the July meeting. It was the first reduction since 2008 and came in response to slowing global economic growth and muted inflation.
The SECURE Act: Completing an unfinished masterpiece
Congress is considering the SECURE Act, which would enhance workplace retirement savings plans and extend access to millions of workers.
Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
Implications of the Huawei export ban
With Huawei blocked by the U.S. Commerce Department from buying U.S. technology, we discuss ramifications on the technology sector and how the ban may end.
Trade tensions could reduce global GDP
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
How green is your beverage container?
Rigorous research of sustainability can lead to attractive investment opportunities.
Why flexibility matters if Treasury yields climb
An active, flexible posture on rate risk could be helpful given the reasons why Treasury yields might rise from recent low levels.
ESG investing: Identifying leaders in data management
Data security and privacy practices can significantly affect business models, and leading companies may offer strategic and financial advantages.
Actively targeting inflation risk for retirement savers
We explain why a dynamic approach to hedging inflation risk in a target-date fund may be a better way to protect a retirement nest egg.
Investing for impact | Q&A with Stephanie Henderson
A member of Putnam's sustainable investing team describes her motivations for spreading ESG fluency throughout the firm to enhance fundamental insights.
Market volatility returns to "old" normal
Our outlook for stock market volatility sees the levels reached in 2018 continuing, in part because these levels were close to the long-term norm.
401(k) reaches milestone as innovation continues
As the 401(k) reaches milestone, the workplace savings plan continues its evolution, adapting to changing demographics and savers’ needs.
ESG Outlook for 2019
We see increasing evidence that systems thinking is becoming more prevalent and influential throughout corporations and the investment community.
What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
Bigger tax refunds may help boost retirement savings
Projections of larger tax refunds this year could mean an increase in contributions to retirement savings.
How company diversity can help performance
The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.
Use wellness to gain wealth
New research found that a worker who focuses on wellness may save nearly $100,000 more for retirement than someone who does not manage their health well.
October stock market volatility may signal a shift
Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.
Calibrate equity allocations with higher savings rates
Evidence of higher savings rates by plan participants make it reasonable to consider lower equity allocations across the glide path of target-date funds.
Italy may be conduit for EM contagion
If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.
How to plan more rationally for longevity risk
Longevity risk — the possibility outliving one's money in retirement — is a genuine risk, but data suggests that many people overestimate its likelihood.
Back in black: Higher oil prices to persist
Fueling higher oil prices this year — and counter to market expectations — is a drop in oil inventories ...
Shaping the curve in glide path design
In designing an optimal glide path for a target date fund, it is critical to focus on portfolio size, investor time horizon, and volatility.
Key risks to consider in glide path design
Sequence risk is the key risk that target-date investment managers need to address along the glide path.
Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices
Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.
The persistency of multi-asset fund alpha
Quantitative analysis indicates that alpha generated by multi-asset managers may have persistency, both positive and negative, up to a year.
Are international stocks truly cheap?
On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than international stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.
Munis feel knock-on effects of tax reform
The municipal bond market will likely see a reduction in supply in 2018 because of certain provisions in the new tax reform law.
Just how cheap are European equities?
Our analysis finds that industry group weightings play a significant role in valuation discrepancies between U.S. and European equities.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
Avoiding retirement savings shortfalls requires a team effort
Plan features, employer match, deferral rates, and investor education all work together to help participants avoid retirement savings shortfalls.
Using and enhancing ESG investment data
ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.
Take the measure of currency risk in portfolios
With the dollar moving higher since 2014, it's worth considering the currency risk in international portfolios.
Job growth continues in January
January jobs 257,000 Unemployment rate 5.7% (up from 5.6% in December) The labor participation rate remains near its lowest point of recent
Rising receipts may recast federal budget debate
The true measure of underlying economic strength in the United States is not showing up completely in GDP numbers or ...
Fed foretells end of QE3
The Federal Reserve has implemented a monetary policy called quantitative easing, or "QE" for short, to drive down interest ...
Post-crisis after shocks hasten innovation
Five years after the 2008 financial crisis, we are still feeling the after shocks around the world. Among the deepest ...
Why Brazil's crisis creates new concerns
The revelations of May 17 may pose a threat to President Temer's administration, and therefore a threat to Brazil's short- and medium-term economic outlook.
Why rates matter to stocks, too
Risk factor analysis shows that equity market sectors that act like “bond proxies” may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates than bonds themselves.
Rates do not drive bonds alone
Since the election, the markets have pushed bond hyields higher in anticipation of stronger growth and higher rates. While trends ...
Six facts about Dow 20,000
The 20,000 milestone reached by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) garnered major media attention, but that’s due more to the fame of the index.
Taking the temperature of the January effect
Is the so-called January Effect a real opportunity for investors, or is it too well-known to be exploited? We offer a number of perspectives.
See the dove in the Fed's dot plot
The market sees a more hawkish Fed in the December 2016 rate hike, but we see see signs of a dove in the Fed's dot plot.
Watch the euro as Italy votes
We are watching the referendum in Italy this weekend for yet another existential crisis for the euro.
Diversifying stable value with traditional GICs
Stable value portfolios that avoid traditional GICs may be missing a diversification opportunity that also offers liquidity.