Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
Most recent post
Difficult conditions persist in emerging markets
June 19, 2019 | Equity
The trajectory of China’s economy, the outcome of global trade tensions and local elections will determine the performance of emerging-market assets.
Capital Markets Outlook
Caution with a chance of bearishness
July 9, 2019 | Capital Markets Outlook
We are shifting our tactical allocations as weaker data give us doubts about current earnings expectations.
Fixed Income Outlook
Bonds rally as the Fed hits the pause button
April 24, 2019 | Fixed Income Outlook
The outlook for global growth has cooled in 2019.
Equity Outlook
What happened to value stocks?
June 14, 2019 | Equity Outlook
Our views on the valuation spread, why investors don't want value, and which approaches may work best in the changing equity landscape.
Difficult conditions persist in emerging markets
The trajectory of China’s economy, the outcome of global trade tensions and local elections will determine the performance of emerging-market assets.
Trade war fallout can hurt risky assets
The simmering trade war between the United States and China is expected to continue, and could put the economy at risk.
Implications of the Huawei export ban
With Huawei blocked by the U.S. Commerce Department from buying U.S. technology, we discuss ramifications on the technology sector and how the ban may end.
Trade tensions could reduce global GDP
There is a significant likelihood that U.S.-China trade tensions will remain high. Effects on global GDP effects are uncertain, but could exceed 1%.
How green is your beverage container?
Rigorous research of sustainability can lead to attractive investment opportunities.
Why flexibility matters if Treasury yields climb
An active, flexible posture on rate risk could be helpful given the reasons why Treasury yields might rise from recent low levels.
ESG investing: Identifying leaders in data management
Data security and privacy practices can significantly affect business models, and leading companies may offer strategic and financial advantages.
Actively targeting inflation risk for retirement savers
We explain why a dynamic approach to hedging inflation risk in a target-date fund may be a better way to protect a retirement nest egg.
Investing for impact | Q&A with Stephanie Henderson
A member of Putnam's sustainable investing team describes her motivations for spreading ESG fluency throughout the firm to enhance fundamental insights.
Market volatility returns to "old" normal
Our outlook for stock market volatility sees the levels reached in 2018 continuing, in part because these levels were close to the long-term norm.
401(k) reaches milestone as innovation continues
As the 401(k) reaches milestone, the workplace savings plan continues its evolution, adapting to changing demographics and savers’ needs.
ESG Outlook for 2019
We see increasing evidence that systems thinking is becoming more prevalent and influential throughout corporations and the investment community.
What November means for 2019
The events of November provide a fresh view of two key risks facing the economy in 2019 — a hawkish Fed and an escalation of the trade war.
China, U.S. trade tensions will reverberate across emerging markets
Emerging market equities will remain under pressure amid escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.
Bigger tax refunds may help boost retirement savings
Projections of larger tax refunds this year could mean an increase in contributions to retirement savings.
How company diversity can help performance
The potential to improve work performance is perhaps the most intriguing and least understood argument for diversity — and worth examining in more depth.
Use wellness to gain wealth
New research found that a worker who focuses on wellness may save nearly $100,000 more for retirement than someone who does not manage their health well.
October stock market volatility may signal a shift
Recent stock market volatility reflects a process of pricing in the fact that the global growth outlook has diverged.
Calibrate equity allocations with higher savings rates
Evidence of higher savings rates by plan participants make it reasonable to consider lower equity allocations across the glide path of target-date funds.
Italy may be conduit for EM contagion
If Italy's populist government increases government debt, prices of Italian bonds and banks could drop and trigger a larger crisis for the region and world.
How to plan more rationally for longevity risk
Longevity risk — the possibility outliving one's money in retirement — is a genuine risk, but data suggests that many people overestimate its likelihood.
Back in black: Higher oil prices to persist
Fueling higher oil prices this year — and counter to market expectations — is a drop in oil inventories since ...
Shaping the curve in glide path design
In designing an optimal glide path for a target date fund, it is critical to focus on portfolio size, investor time horizon, and volatility.
China’s quest for artificial intelligence
China's hardware tech companies are embracing artificial intelligence, including self-driving cars and surveillance, as the government promotes AI hubs.
Key risks to consider in glide path design
Sequence risk is the key risk that target-date investment managers need to address along the glide path.
Sustainable investing: Assessing the choices
Sustainable investing is growing in popularity, and investors should be thoughtful about choosing from a range of strategies and portfolios.
The persistency of multi-asset fund alpha
Quantitative analysis indicates that alpha generated by multi-asset managers may have persistency, both positive and negative, up to a year.
Are international stocks truly cheap?
On the surface, U.S. stocks appear more expensive than international stocks, but a quantitative comparison reveals the impact of sector valuations.
Munis feel knock-on effects of tax reform
The municipal bond market will likely see a reduction in supply in 2018 because of certain provisions in the new tax reform law.
Just how cheap are European equities?
Our analysis finds that industry group weightings play a significant role in valuation discrepancies between U.S. and European equities.
Looking for impact in CEO compensation
It’s important for investors to be able to understand how a company’s performance relates to CEO compensation.
How the Japan election may influence global interest rates
The Japan election could have consequences for the future leadership of the Bank of Japan and the country's impact on global interest rate trends.
Avoiding retirement savings shortfalls requires a team effort
Plan features, employer match, deferral rates, and investor education all work together to help participants avoid retirement savings shortfalls.
Using and enhancing ESG investment data
ESG data is having investment impact but is still evolving, and stands to benefit from feedback offered by fundamental analysts.