Weekly economic update for September 20, 2021


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy
  • The CPI increased 0.3% and core CPI rose 0.1% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
  • Retail sales grew 0.7% in August compared with July, the Census Bureau stated in an advance report.
  • Import prices declined 0.3% and export prices advanced 0.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted.


Employment
  • Initial jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 332,000 in the week ended September 11, 2021, according to the Department of Labor.


Profits
  • As of September 8, 2021, of the 499 S&P 500 Index companies reporting second-quarter earnings, 429 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.


Emotion
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased slightly in August.
  • The University of Michigan’s preliminary estimate of its index of consumer sentiment rose to 71.0 in September from 70.3 in August.


Europe
  • Germany’s Federal Statistical Office noted that wholesale prices rose 0.5% in August compared with July.
  • Eurostat reported that the euro area recorded a trade surplus in July.
  • Euro area industrial production grew 1.5% in July compared with June, according to Eurostat.


Rates
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded in a narrow range.


Risks
  • Divergent vaccination rollout timelines and virus mutations risk could cause a shift from a synchronized global recovery to a more fractured regional, multispeed recovery.
  • Global leverage, created by pandemic response packages, is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for.
  • A shift from “just in time” to “just in case” inventory models could exacerbate supply chain concerns.


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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.