Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | June 2019

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.

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Global economic growth weakens slightly

SHORT-TERM TREND
The economic expansion is at risk from rising trade tensions
2.45%

Growth among G10 nations was little changed. Economic indicators in Canada, New Zealand, and Japan improved while those in the remaining G10 countries slowed. In the United States, industrial production faltered, setting the growth path lower. Economic indicators weakened in China, Russia, and Turkey. In Latin America, Brazil's economy grew the slowest.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of May 31, 2019. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.