Putnam Global GDP Nowcast | February 2020

The Putnam Global GDP Nowcast index is a proprietary GDP-weighted quantitative model that tracks key growth factors across 25 economies. This index and individual country indexes are used as key signals in Putnam's interest-rate and foreign-exchange strategies.


Global growth rises modestly

SHORT-TERM TREND
Economic growth is stabilizing at a slow but steady pace.
2.39%

Among G-10 economies, the United States and Britain had positive data flow. In the United States, according to the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, housing activity and jobless claims improved. Britain's GDP outlook was buoyed by housing prices and improving consumer and economic sentiments. In Canada, exports and wages dipped. Economic indicators held steady in Latin America and China.

LONG-TERM CYCLE
This six-year illustration captures GDP gyrations since the financial crisis.

Jan '14–Oct '16

Global growth settles into a more subdued pattern of modestly disappointing results.

Nov '16–Dec '17

More synchronous performance across global markets emerges to lift the trajectory of global growth.

Source: Putnam. Data as of January 31, 2020. We base our Global GDP Nowcast on a tailored methodology that captures daily data releases for the most essential growth characteristics for each of 25 countries — including purchasing managers' index data, industrial production, retail sales data, labor market metrics, real estate price indexes, sentiment indicators, and numerous other factors. The mix of factors used for each market may change over time as new indicators become available from data sources or if certain factors become more, or less, predictive of economic growth.