Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
Revisiting the rates conundrum
Bond bears expecting bad news in 2022 should think about the stubbornly low yields of the past two decades.
Finding growth potential in unexpected places
For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.
How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?
The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.
The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates
We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.
Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates
It’s time, in our view, to think about new ways to diversify a portfolio by supplementing traditional fixed income allocations. Consider convertibles.
$100 oil may be a pipe dream
Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.
Bond markets navigate crosscurrents of rates and inflation
Fixed-income markets faced multiple risks, including the Fed's plan to unwind debt purchases, the shifting growth outlook, and Covid-19. But, we believe the environment for bonds remains supportive.
Regulatory storm sweeps across China
President Xi Jinping's “common prosperity” campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.
Emerging markets leading the way in innovation
Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.
Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
Pandemic takes toll on emerging market finances
New mobility restrictions will be a drag on emerging economies, but we expect the impact will be less severe than during the first wave of the pandemic.
U.K. rebounds as consumers splurge, factories rev up
The U.K. economy is recovering as retail sales, manufacturing, and services show strong growth, driven by the easing of lockdown rules.
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Oil makes a comeback as demand rises
Oil demand is likely to rise amid a stronger outlook for the United States, China, and Europe.
Don't overlook non-U.S. small caps
When focused on diversification one asset class that is often overlooked is non-U.S. small-caps.
The evolution of time-as-a-service illustrates the changing nature of economic moats, competitive advantages that protect a company’s market share.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
China focuses on growth today and on tech for the future
China's ambitious five-year plan calls for self-sufficiency in technology and quality domestic growth.
Economic recovery, European-style
We believe Europe's economic activity can remain in expansion and perhaps even surprise on the upside in the second quarter.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Clean energy: Myths, reality, and opportunities
We believe many companies are poised to benefit significantly from the big shift toward renewable energy.
Green shoots in Japan's economy
Japan's economy, the world's third largest, will likely accelerate in mid-2021 as vaccine rollouts gather steam.
Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees
Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.
U.S. consumers flush with cash could drive temporary inflation
An easing pandemic and rising consumption will buoy U.S. growth, and potentially inflation.
Rising yields and mixed recoveries in emerging markets
The broad outlook for emerging markets has improved as vaccinations gather pace, but higher global interest rates will create headwinds.
Oil prices rally as supply dwindles
OPEC+ will be the key determinant for near-term oil prices as the outlook for global demand improves.
Global economic recovery hinges on vaccine success
Vaccine supply and efficacy rates will be important factors for a return to pre-pandemic global activity.
New medicines and digital tools target mental health
In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
China's economy pulls ahead
China’s economy is rebounding and the virus spread remains mostly under control.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine-led recovery could boost emerging markets
The pace of economic recovery will differ among emerging markets, depending on COVID-19 vaccines and virus trends
Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery
The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.
Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+
Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.
Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles
Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.
Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons
Two weeks after Election Day, we believe the markets have a lot more clarity, but options markets reveal uncertainty.
U.S. politics amid virus surge
U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.
China leads, other emerging markets lag
China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.
Pandemic persists in policy patchwork
Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote
Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.
VIX futures hint at post-election uncertainty
When there is election uncertainty the VIX can experience a “kink” to price indicating idiosyncratic risk.
The global economy and the race for a vaccine
The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.
Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.
The Fed’s flexible new policy
The Fed announced a shift in its approach to monetary policy and the new strategy can be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.
The future is happening faster now
We rarely see as much disruption as we have seen in 2020, and we believe this offers investment opportunities.
Deglobalization creates new winners in China
The trade war, pandemic, and the Made in China 2025 initiative are resulting in a deglobalization trend and opportunities in China.
Staying at home increases spending on homes
As the economy continues to be challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing two notable trends in the U.S. housing industry.
V-shaped recovery proving elusive
The U.S. and global economic recoveries are unlikely to be “V-shaped” as businesses and consumers remain wary of returning to pre-pandemic behavior.
Vaccine is a wild card for the economy
A vaccine for the coronavirus will be supportive of risky assets even if the economic benefits take longer to materialize.
Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering
Without a proactive Fed, the rally in risk assets would be in trouble.
Europe displays rare unity over relief fund
In a step toward closer ties, European Union leaders plan to discuss a recovery fund for countries hardest hit by the pandemic.
Company diversity and social justice
Company diversity is a step toward equity and equity is a step toward inclusion, which is important to company success.
U.S.–China war of words playbook
The politics of the U.S.–China relationship have clearly become more complicated recently. The war of words over China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak and the proposed new Hong Kong security law has the potential to create headwinds for the global economy and financial markets.
Disruptive change: A growth driver for small companies
Disruptive change is often the force that enables small companies to compete against their larger peers.
Navigating market turmoil: Our intrinsic value compass
Our investments in the communications sector help illustrate our intrinsic value approach to finding opportunities.
U.S. economic fog lifts slightly
It is encouraging that some stabilization has started in the United States and the economic data fog is lifting just a little; but we forecast a low probability of a "V-shaped" recovery.
Sustainability research: A week in the life of our team
Our research includes discussions with company managements, other researchers and investors, industry and subject experts, and non-profit organizations.
Behavioral shifts bring potential investment opportunities
Many businesses that have been resilient and strong during the COVID-19 crisis are likely to become even stronger in the aftermath.
Coronavirus tests limits of U.S. stimulus plans
The pandemic is testing the policy responses from the Federal Reserve and Congress to boost the U.S. economy and calm financial markets.
Sustainable value: Gender diversity on corporate boards
Diversity in companies — including gender diversity — can have a positive impact on company performance and strategic ability.
Stumbling toward a fiscal equilibrium in the eurozone
The economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe will be severe amid efforts by policymakers, including the ECB, to cushion the blow.
Bracing for a slow U.S. recovery
U.S. economic recovery will likely be slow and halting as coronavirus health risks cast a shadow on demand.
What’s next for the hard-hit financials sector?
The financials sector has been among the hardest hit from the COVID-19-induced equity market selloff, but there are reasons for optimism.
ESG issues alive in healthcare
Our team analyzes medical costs and access as ESG issues affecting human well-being and sustainable economic development.
Perspectives on COVID-19
Putnam’s health-care analysts and portfolio managers offer their outlooks and perspectives on key aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil’s wild ride and what lies ahead
Demand for oil has collapsed as the coronavirus pandemic devastates the global economy and curbs much of the need for fuel from companies and consumers.
Navigating bond yields
The trajectory of bonds yields will depend on the Federal Reserve's policies and fiscal stimulus amid a sharp global economic downturn.
Investing for growth in volatile markets
Putnam portfolio managers discuss managing risk and finding investment opportunities in challenging markets.
Social distancing generates recession
A recession is looming in the U.S. as COVID-19 and social distancing take a toll on economic activity.
Equity opportunities in challenging markets
Putnam’s equity investment professionals recently discussed market conditions, Putnam strategies, and their outlooks.
Manager insights: Bulls, bears, and bond markets
With the extreme swings in the market over the past few weeks, several of Putnam’s senior fixed-income managers shared their insights on the bond markets
Slowing the spread of Covid-19 entails economic disruption
The global economic outlook has deteriorated because of the coronavirus pandemic and rising supply and demand disruptions.
The Fed reacts to coronavirus economic risks
The Fed made a proactive move to reduce the federal funds rate by 50 basis points.
The impact of coronavirus on markets
The spread of coronavirus infections is having an impact on China’s GDP and on financial market sentiment worldwide.
Is another round of Fed rate cuts looming?
The Federal Reserve may lower its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points in 2020 if sustained financial market stress affects economic activity.
Solutions to antibiotic resistance
As the focus on natural ingredients intensifies, so has concern about antibiotic use in food production.
Waiting for the next wave of growth
We believe the global economy will continue to bounce around the current growth pace. Trade, manufacturing, and oil, along with geopolitical risks, will play a role in determining the trajectory.
China's economy braces for fallout from coronavirus
There will be some temporary disruption to economic activity in China and elsewhere from the coronavirus outbreak.
Mixed economic messages for 2020
2020 is likely to be another year of sluggish growth with continued risk of a sharper downturn.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.