Putnam Perspectives - Putnam Investments

Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes

Revisiting the rates conundrum

Bond bears expecting bad news in 2022 should think about the stubbornly low yields of the past two decades.

Finding growth potential in unexpected places

For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.

How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?

The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.

The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates

We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.

Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates

It’s time, in our view, to think about new ways to diversify a portfolio by supplementing traditional fixed income allocations. Consider convertibles.

$100 oil may be a pipe dream

Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.

Bond markets navigate crosscurrents of rates and inflation

Fixed-income markets faced multiple risks, including the Fed's plan to unwind debt purchases, the shifting growth outlook, and Covid-19. But, we believe the environment for bonds remains supportive.

Regulatory storm sweeps across China

President Xi Jinping's “common prosperity” campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.

Emerging markets leading the way in innovation

Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.

Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal

Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.

U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65

Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.

Pandemic takes toll on emerging market finances

New mobility restrictions will be a drag on emerging economies, but we expect the impact will be less severe than during the first wave of the pandemic.

U.K. rebounds as consumers splurge, factories rev up

The U.K. economy is recovering as retail sales, manufacturing, and services show strong growth, driven by the easing of lockdown rules.

Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery

We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.

Oil makes a comeback as demand rises

Oil demand is likely to rise amid a stronger outlook for the United States, China, and Europe.

Don't overlook non-U.S. small caps

When focused on diversification one asset class that is often overlooked is non-U.S. small-caps.

Time-as-a-Service, anyone?

The evolution of time-as-a-service illustrates the changing nature of economic moats, competitive advantages that protect a company’s market share.

Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market

We examine the interplay between President Biden's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.

China focuses on growth today and on tech for the future

China's ambitious five-year plan calls for self-sufficiency in technology and quality domestic growth.

Economic recovery, European-style

We believe Europe's economic activity can remain in expansion and perhaps even surprise on the upside in the second quarter.

From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes

The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.

Clean energy: Myths, reality, and opportunities

We believe many companies are poised to benefit significantly from the big shift toward renewable energy.

Green shoots in Japan's economy

Japan's economy, the world's third largest, will likely accelerate in mid-2021 as vaccine rollouts gather steam.

Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees

Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.

U.S. consumers flush with cash could drive temporary inflation

An easing pandemic and rising consumption will buoy U.S. growth, and potentially inflation.

Rising yields and mixed recoveries in emerging markets

The broad outlook for emerging markets has improved as vaccinations gather pace, but higher global interest rates will create headwinds.

Oil prices rally as supply dwindles

OPEC+ will be the key determinant for near-term oil prices as the outlook for global demand improves.

Global economic recovery hinges on vaccine success

Vaccine supply and efficacy rates will be important factors for a return to pre-pandemic global activity.

New medicines and digital tools target mental health

In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.

Is inflation poised to return?

We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.

China's economy pulls ahead

China’s economy is rebounding and the virus spread remains mostly under control.

U.K. starts new chapter after EU split

It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.

Vaccine-led recovery could boost emerging markets

The pace of economic recovery will differ among emerging markets, depending on COVID-19 vaccines and virus trends

Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery

The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.

Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+

Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.

Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles

Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.

Post-election option markets show uncertainty for new reasons

Two weeks after Election Day, we believe the markets have a lot more clarity, but options markets reveal uncertainty.

U.S. politics amid virus surge

U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.

China leads, other emerging markets lag

China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.

Pandemic persists in policy patchwork

Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.

U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote

Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.

VIX futures hint at post-election uncertainty

When there is election uncertainty the VIX can experience a “kink” to price indicating idiosyncratic risk.

The global economy and the race for a vaccine

The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.

Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.

The Fed’s flexible new policy

The Fed announced a shift in its approach to monetary policy and the new strategy can be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.

The future is happening faster now

We rarely see as much disruption as we have seen in 2020, and we believe this offers investment opportunities.

Deglobalization creates new winners in China

The trade war, pandemic, and the Made in China 2025 initiative are resulting in a deglobalization trend and opportunities in China.

Staying at home increases spending on homes

As the economy continues to be challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing two notable trends in the U.S. housing industry.

V-shaped recovery proving elusive

The U.S. and global economic recoveries are unlikely to be “V-shaped” as businesses and consumers remain wary of returning to pre-pandemic behavior.

Vaccine is a wild card for the economy

A vaccine for the coronavirus will be supportive of risky assets even if the economic benefits take longer to materialize.

Risk sentiment swings with Fed tapering

Without a proactive Fed, the rally in risk assets would be in trouble.

Europe displays rare unity over relief fund

In a step toward closer ties, European Union leaders plan to discuss a recovery fund for countries hardest hit by the pandemic.

Company diversity and social justice

Company diversity is a step toward equity and equity is a step toward inclusion, which is important to company success.

U.S.–China war of words playbook

The politics of the U.S.–China relationship have clearly become more complicated recently. The war of words over China’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak and the proposed new Hong Kong security law has the potential to create headwinds for the global economy and financial markets.